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2102.09637

Explicit Bivariate Rate Functions for Large Deviations in AR(1) and MA(1) Processes with Gaussian Innovations

M.J. Karling , A.O. Lopes , S.R.C. Lopes

correcthigh confidence
Category
Not specified
Journal tier
Specialist/Solid
Processed
Sep 28, 2025, 12:56 AM

Audit review

The paper proves an LDP for W_n=(n^{-1}∑X_k^2, n^{-1}∑_{k=2}^n X_kX_{k-1}) in a stationary Gaussian AR(1) via Toeplitz/eigenvalue methods, deriving the limiting cumulant generating function L(λ1,λ2)=−1/2 log((1+θ^2−2λ1+√((1+θ^2−2λ1)^2−4(θ+λ2)^2))/2) on the domain 2|θ+λ2|<1+θ^2−2λ1, and then applying Gärtner–Ellis to obtain a good rate function given by the Legendre–Fenchel transform; they explicitly use J(x,y)=1/2[x(1+θ^2)−1−2θy+log(x/(x^2−y^2))] on {x>0,|y|<x} in subsequent contractions (e.g., their (3.3)), confirming the closed form that the model derives by Gaussian determinant methods and tridiagonal recursions. Thus, results and expressions coincide; the approaches differ (spectral Toeplitz vs. precision-matrix determinant recursion), but both are correct and consistent with Gärtner–Ellis (essential smoothness/steepness verified) .

Referee report (LaTeX)

\textbf{Recommendation:} minor revisions

\textbf{Journal Tier:} specialist/solid

\textbf{Justification:}

The paper correctly establishes an LDP for the bivariate statistic in Gaussian AR(1) (and treats MA(1) cases) with an explicit rate function, using standard but carefully executed Toeplitz and Gärtner–Ellis tools. The results align with known one-dimensional cases and provide explicit bivariate expressions that are practically useful. Minor presentation enhancements would further improve accessibility.