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2011.06280

Dynamical Analysis of Stochastic COVID-19 Model with Jump-Diffusion

Almaz T., Daniel Tesfay, Anas Khalaf, James Brannan, Jinqiao Duan

wrongmedium confidence
Category
math.DS
Journal tier
Specialist/Solid
Processed
Sep 28, 2025, 12:55 AM

Audit review

The paper’s persistence theorem (Theorem 3) drops the −(ν+γ) term when passing from the log-I identity (Eq. (16)/(17)) to the averaged equality (Eq. (23)→(24)), and also mishandles division by t in Eq. (24). This yields the stated limits S̃, Ĩ, R̃ that violate the mass-balance identity derived from Eqs. (8)–(10) and Lemma 1(ii). In particular, the paper’s limits satisfy S̃+Ĩ+R̃=2(βΛ/ν−ϕ2)/β≠Λ/ν, whereas adding the model equations and letting t→∞ forces ⟨S⟩+⟨I⟩+⟨R⟩=Λ/ν (using Lemma 1(ii)). The candidate solution keeps the missing −(ν+γ) term, leading to self-consistent limits that do sum to Λ/ν, and follows the standard martingale LLN pathway the paper also invokes. See the paper’s Eqs. (16)–(18) for the correct log-I drift with −(ν+γ) present, the incorrect Eq. (23)/(24) where it disappears, and the statement of Theorem 3 with the inconsistent S̃, Ĩ, R̃.

Referee report (LaTeX)

\textbf{Recommendation:} major revisions

\textbf{Journal Tier:} specialist/solid

\textbf{Justification:}

The manuscript treats a relevant stochastic SIR-with-jumps model and correctly handles positivity and the extinction upper bound, but Theorem 3’s derivation of time-average limits contains algebraic and averaging errors (loss of the −(ν+γ) term; missing 1/t on ln I0), leading to inconsistent constants that violate mass balance. These issues undermine the main persistence result and must be repaired. The corrections are conceptually straightforward but propagate through the main theorem and its numerical interpretation.